Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 0.056420 0.064530 0.073653 0.084727 0.097872 0.113057 0.132045
2025-11-16 0.044072 0.053937 0.065990 0.081972 0.102860 0.129589 0.166963
2025-11-23 0.035438 0.045918 0.059663 0.079362 0.107457 0.147021 0.208692
2025-11-30 0.029656 0.040471 0.055609 0.078954 0.115194 0.171355 0.269349
2025-12-07 0.025099 0.035889 0.051913 0.078378 0.122933 0.198831 0.347506
2025-12-14 0.020965 0.031211 0.047237 0.075372 0.126389 0.221395 0.429799
2025-12-21 0.016973 0.026099 0.040983 0.068465 0.121514 0.228217 0.487262
2025-12-28 0.014853 0.023651 0.038672 0.068001 0.128774 0.262477 0.629312
2026-01-04 0.013339 0.021975 0.037395 0.069235 0.140178 0.311703 0.849959
2026-01-11 0.011920 0.020239 0.035706 0.069320 0.149467 0.361668 1.123786
2026-01-18 0.010703 0.018686 0.034093 0.069231 0.158656 0.417687 1.487378
2026-01-25 0.009486 0.016953 0.031827 0.067183 0.162453 0.461645 1.870286
2026-02-01 0.008293 0.015127 0.029126 0.063656 0.161653 0.493440 2.267307
2026-02-08 0.007580 0.014162 0.028095 0.064017 0.172605 0.576473 3.126725
2026-02-15 0.006931 0.013238 0.027002 0.063990 0.182761 0.667298 4.304310
2026-02-22 0.006447 0.012595 0.026440 0.065297 0.198377 0.799469 6.320108
2026-03-01 0.005994 0.011957 0.025782 0.066199 0.213449 0.948992 9.307243
2026-03-08 0.005478 0.011108 0.024469 0.064841 0.219580 1.061197 12.643699
2026-03-15 0.004852 0.009937 0.022173 0.059892 0.209042 1.064768 14.425569
2026-03-22 0.004535 0.009446 0.021551 0.060180 0.221511 1.240268 21.448819
2026-03-29 0.004306 0.009134 0.021347 0.061827 0.241540 1.509023 35.415847
2026-04-05 0.004056 0.008739 0.020858 0.062386 0.257106 1.778137 56.803843
2026-04-12 0.003821 0.008354 0.020335 0.062709 0.272117 2.082430 92.990267